A Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of the Half-life Estimator in an Autoregressive Model: New Insights into the Ppp Puzzle
نویسندگان
چکیده
Author Contact: David Giles, Dept. of Economics, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, B.C., Canada V8W 2Y2; e-mail: [email protected]; FAX: (250) 721-6214 Abstract We derive saddlepoint approximations for the density and distribution functions of the half-life estimated by OLS from an AR(1) or AR(p) model. Our analytic results are used to prove that none of the integer-order moments of these half-life estimators exist. This provides an explanation for the unreasonably large estimates of persistency associated with the purchasing power parity “puzzle”, and it also explains the excessively wide confidence intervals reported in the empirical PPP literature.
منابع مشابه
A Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of the Half- Life Estimator in a Stationary Autoregressive Model
We derive saddlepoint approximations for the distribution and density functions of the half-life estimated by OLS from autoregressive time-series models. Our results are used to prove that none of the integer-order moments of these half-life estimators exist. This provides an explanation for the very large estimates of persistency, and the extremely wide confidence intervals, that have been rep...
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